While the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to drive case numbers higher around the world, prompting governments to restrict travel and introduce or maintain lockdowns, signals from across the travel and tourism industry suggest that 2022 could be a year of robust recovery, even if the pre-pandemic ‘normal’ remains several years off. Despite case levels peaking in many states recently, the prospects of recovery in Europe and North America appear bright. As airport after airport in these regions has reported 2021 traffic numbers in recent weeks, management teams at many have expressed positivity about the year ahead, especially once an expected difficult Q1 is in the rear view mirror. Although Fraport Group for example cautions that the short-term picture is uncertain, CEO Dr. Stefan Schulte sums up the mood among many regional airport bosses when he says that he expects a rebound in traffic from the Spring onwards.

Vienna Airport Member of the Management Board Julian Jäger says: “2022 will bring an upturn but the way out of the crisis is still a long one. The first months of this year will still be very challenging, but we anticipate a significant upturn in passenger traffic beginning when the Summer flight schedule takes effect at the end of March 2022.” That cautious but upbeat note about travel in Europe reflects an important wider view of the health situation as expressed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Regional Director for Europe Dr. Hans Kluge says that the ‘emergency phase’ of the COVID-19 pandemic could be set to end this year. This is related to the “much less severe disease” and hospitalisations caused by Omicron, despite increased case numbers, he adds. Crucially for travel and tourism, Dr. Kluge notes that “if and when a new variant appears, a new wave could no longer require the return to pandemic-era, population-wide lockdowns or similar measures”. That represents a hugely encouraging signal for travel and tourism – assuming governments act accordingly. In the US, Chief Medical Adviser Anthony Fauci has said that most states would reach and pass the Omicron peak by mid-February. The patterns of disease in South Africa, Israel and UK, as well as some US states, suggest that the peak will be followed by a sharp decline in cases.

Reflecting that sentiment, Middle East travel retailers such as Dubai Duty Free and Qatar Duty Free are predicting a boom year in 2022 compared to 2020 and 2021 – although full recovery remains some way removed. And while optimism in Asia Pacific is tempered by continued strict measures by many governments, here too there is reason for hope. As our feature on page 17 underlines, Pacific Asia Travel Association has said that calendar year 2021 is expected to be “the bottom of the trough” for visitor arrivals in the region, with substantial annual growth rates through to 2024. While that recovery will be volatile and uneven, international travel recovery to and within the Asia Pacific region is expected to return gradually over the next three years, starting with a rebound later in 2022. Tourism of course is one of the key fundamentals underpinning the fortunes of travel-related industries such as travel retail. Here too there are some signs of positivity, although the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) outlook remains cautious. Global tourism arrivals grew by +4% year-on-year in 2021 to 415 million but remained -72% down on the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

A gloomy picture for tourism in 2020 and 2021 could see a turnaround in 2022, says UNWTO

Encouragingly though, rising rates of vaccination, combined with easing of travel restrictions due to increased cross-border coordination and protocols, helped to release pent-up demand in the second half. UNWTO scenarios indicate that international tourist arrivals could grow in a range between +30% and +78% this year compared to 2021, although these would still be -50% to -63% below pre-pandemic levels. UNWTO says: “The recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the Omicron variant are set to disrupt the recovery and affect confidence through early 2022 as some countries reintroduce travel bans and restrictions for certain markets. At the same time, the vaccination roll-out remains uneven and many destinations still have their borders completely closed, mostly in Asia and the Pacific. “A challenging economic environment could put additional pressure on the effective recovery of international tourism, with the surge in oil prices, increase in inflation, potential rise in interest rates, high debt volumes and the continued disruption in supply chains. However, the ongoing tourism recovery in many markets, mostly in Europe and the Americas, coupled with the widespread vaccination rollout and a major coordinated lifting of travel restrictions, could help to restore consumer confidence and accelerate the recovery of international tourism in 2022.” That assessment mirrors others that suggest a major travel recovery could be under way in many regions by the second half, and earlier in large domestic markets with strong aviation economies. While uncertainty persists, there are enough signals to suggest that 2022 could be a year where travel and travel retail gets firmly back on its feet.