The cautious optimism with which many aviation industry leaders view the prospects for 2023 are neatly summed up by the comments in recent days by Fraport CEO Dr. Stefan Schulte, whose company manages Frankfurt Airport and a wide international network. It followed a year in which the key German gateway posted solid recovery (to 48.9 million passengers), but remained more than -30% down on pre-pandemic numbers.

Dr. Schulte said: “2022 was a very turbulent and challenging year for the entire aviation industry. Following the lockdowns at the start of the year, the sudden and sharp increase in demand put a heavy strain on all process partners ramping up operations. Due to the complexity of the system, air traffic operations had a shaky restart at many airports – including in Frankfurt. We are confident we will see further growth in 2023. People are eager to travel, and we are working full speed to ensure that passengers have the best possible airport experience. Nevertheless, the situation remains challenging.”

The experience at Fraport paints a mixed picture. It speaks of a robust leisure traffic recovery, led by the group’s Greek airports last Summer, but on the other hand consumer concerns about discretionary spending and limited rebuilding of flight schedules underline the uncertainty that lies ahead in 2023.

Fraport is looking ahead to growth in 2023 though like other major airport groups, it remains uncertain about the outlook.

It’s a view mirrored by other senior figures in the airports sector in Europe. Stockholm Airport returned to 75% of pre-pandemic figures in 2022 (18 million). Reflecting on the performance and outlook, Swedavia President and CEO Jonas Abrahamsson said: “Factors such as the economy and the pandemic situation so far have not affected demand to any great extent, but contribute to great uncertainty about the demand for flights in the year ahead.

“I remain optimistic about underlying demand in the long term and that during 2023 Swedavia will continue to enhance connectivity to and from Sweden.”

London Heathrow, one of the world’s largest airports and leading travel retail locations, accelerated its recovery as the year went on, eventually reaching 61.6 million (76% of 2019 numbers). In 2023 passenger traffic is set to rise by +9% compared to 2022, to reach 67.1 million, according to Heathrow’s latest Investor Report in December. That will translate into a +7.25% rise in retail revenues, said the UK airport company.

The forecast is based on a continuation of the recovery seen in the second half of 2022 but with some softening due to the weaker economic climate. 2023 is expected to see a return to a “more typical pre-Covid travel profile” across the year, says Heathrow.

Rankings reflect ‘normalised’ traffic patterns

The return to normality is increasingly reflected in the rankings of major airports, which now much more closely resemble the 2019 picture.

Based on OAG’s seat capacity data by airport for January 2023, the busiest international gateway is Dubai, with 4.6 million seats this month. From a long way back a year ago. London Heathrow has returned to second place; just as it was in 2019. The rise and rise of Istanbul continues, as seen in its third place ranking. The biggest market shift has come with Incheon International posting a +9% leap in seat numbers month on month – the Korean gateway was ranked just 46th in the world a year ago.

The reemergence of Incheon, Singapore and Bangkok Suvarnabhumi among the world’s top ten (for international traffic) is a key signal about the strength of recovery at some of Asia’s major gateways.

Top Ten Busiest International Airports January 2023 (by seat capacity)

Source: OAG