China Travel

China outbound travel prospects leap forward as market opens up

We bring you the key takeaways from an insightful webinar staged by Dragon Trail International and ForwardKeys which assesses the early data arising from the reopening of international travel from China. Mark Lane reports

China’s recent decision to end its dynamic zero-COVID policy and easing of travel restrictions has triggered a surge in flight bookings. That’s according to the latest data released by travel analyst ForwardKeys in a joint seminar staged alongside China marketing solutions firm Dragon Trail International.

ForwardKeys revealed that China’s intra-regional neighbours in Asia will reap the most significant benefits, and also predicted that Chinese international flight demand will peak this summer.

The ease of COVID controls have triggered a surge in flight bookings

Tickets for any future domestic travel within China; week-on-week variation and variation vs. 2019

The data was released along with Dragon Trail’s latest Chinese Traveler Sentiment Report, which highlighted that 60% of its survey respondents said they wanted to travel outside Mainland China in 2023.

Following China’s easing of COVID controls, there was a sharp upswing in bookings for domestic flights, ForwardKeys’ data showed. Sanya was the destination showing the fastest recovery for flight bookings, exceeding pre-pandemic numbers (+102%) for the period covering 7 December-10 January (see table below).

Flight bookings to Sanya are outperforming pre-pandemic levels

Destination city	% of 2019's level
Sanya	102%
Chengdu	92%
Haikou	88%
Harbin	82%
Kunming	70%
Chongqing	75%
Wuhan	75%
Hangzhou	73%
Xiamen	58%

Source: ForwardKeys Actual Air Tickets

It was followed by Chengdu (92% of pre-pandemic levels) and the Hainan capital Haikou (88%) as the most robust China domestic destinations across this period.

During the webinar, ForwardKeys China Market Analyst Nan Dai also revealed that forward Chinese flight bookings for the Chinese New Year holiday period are currently -47% behind pre-pandemic levels but already +30% ahead of last year.

Destinations with relaxed travel rules benefit the most

Fastest growing destinations among top 15	Compared with 14 days prior to the announcement of relaxation
Thailand	+92%
Cambodia	+83%
Macao	+77%
Hong Kong	+74%
Indonesia	+45%
United Arab Emirates	+39%

Source: ForwardKeys Actual Air Tickets

In terms of outbound travel, Southeast Asian destinations are most likely to benefit first from the return of Chinese tourists, Dai said. This assertion was backed up by flight data generated since the announcement of the relaxation in COVID and travel restrictions.

Top destinations during Chinese New Year

Destinations during Chinese New Year week; as of 10 January 2023; variation vs. 2019

“We can expect a more significant increase when airlines schedule for the next summer season starting from the 26th of March.”

Presenting findings from the Chinese Traveler Sentiment Report, Dragon Trail Market Research Analyst Yelinuer Kadeerbieke backed up this view. “Our survey results show that while recovery will start gradually in the first six months of 2023, it’s clear that outbound travel will start to pick up in the second half of the year.

“42% said they would travel outbound in July and August, with 32% planning an autumn Golden Week getaway outside Mainland China.”

Intra-regional destinations are the most popular for Chinese Travellers

Booked international departures from China between January and March 2023, as of 7 January 2023; vs. 2019 levels (numbers may not add up due to rounding)

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

Chinese travellers are ready to go

More than 60% of survey respondents said they wanted to travel outside Mainland China in 2023. This group expressed high expectations about the freedom of cross-border travel this year. Survey respondents said they were excited to relax, as well as to experience scenery, food, culture, and shopping overseas.

When do you plan to travel outbound in 2023

Hong Kong, Macau and Thailand are the most popular destinations

The top seven outbound destinations that Chinese consumers plan to travel to in 2023 are all in Asia. Hong Kong leads the way, chosen by more than 20% of respondents. With 11.1%, Thailand is by far the most popular foreign country (see table below).

Where do you plan to travel in 2023

Rank	Destination	Repeat vs. first time visitors
1	Hong Kong (20.7%)	34.5% vs 65.5%
2	Macao (11.4%)	29.5% vs 70.5%
3	Thailand (11.1%)	37.1% vs 62.9%
4	Japan (5.9%)	27.8% vs 72.2%
5	Taiwan (4.7%)	14.3% vs 85.7%
6	South Korea (4.4%)	14.8% vs 85.2%
7	Singapore (4.2%)	12.0% vs 88.0%
8	France (3.4%)	5.0% vs 95.0%
9	Australia (3.1%)	25.0% vs 75.0%
10	Russia (2.7%)	37.5% vs 62.5%

* 36.1% of survey respondents have outbound travel experience, n=382

Expect market recovery to really get going in summer

While nearly 40% of respondents said they planned to travel outbound in the first six months of 2023, it’s clear that recovery will really start to pick up in the second half of the year. 42% said they would travel outbound in July and August, with 32% planning an autumn Golden Week getaway outside Mainland China.

COVID will have a negative impact

Among the 39.6% of survey respondents who said they will not travel outside of Mainland China in 2023, the pandemic was the leading reason. 54.9% cited financial constraints related to COVID, and more than half worried about risks to their own health (54.2%) and the health of their families (52%). The inconvenience of applying for travel documents (33.9%), busy schedules at work (37.7%) and destination safety (30.5%) also factored into travellers’ decisions to stay at home (see table below).

Chinese travellers: Why not travel abroad in 2023?

Family travel will dominate

With nearly half (48%) of consumers choosing to travel with family, travel destinations and products that cater and appeal to married couples, families with children, and families travelling with elderly parents will best meet market demands. From product design to service and advertising, keeping the family traveller in mind will help stand out in 2023.

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