Lunar New Year Travel I
Trends and patterns in Lunar New Year travel
ForwardKeys outlines the latest flight bookings data for the key Chinese New Year travel period.
This year’s Chinese New Year celebration is particularly significant as it marks the first celebration following the easing of pandemic restrictions. The traditional seven-day holiday has been extended to eight days, reflecting a proactive government initiative aimed at fostering increased people exchange and promoting tourism, notes travel analyst ForwardKeys.
According to ForwardKeys’ latest data (from 18 January), issued flight tickets for international travel from China during the New Year period, spanning 26 January to 29 February, are just -37% behind 2019 levels and travel dynamics reveal a shift in trends.
Departure activity spiked earlier than usual, on 3 February and for many even on 27 January, indicating a preference for early departures among Chinese tourists aiming to dodge crowds and expensive fares during the holiday rush.
The best-performing destination cities such as Kuala Lumpur (+15%), Dubai (+8%), and Macau (+8%) have already surpassed 2019 issued ticket levels, thanks to relaxed entry requirements for Chinese travellers.
Long-haul destinations including Sydney (-5%) and London (-8%) have shown good resilience with single-digit decreases, while Singapore (-18%) and Seoul (-22%) are in quick recovery mode, attracting Chinese tourists with advanced flight connectivity and simplified visa procedures.
Within China, the peak in travel is set to concentrate around the last two days of the Chinese New Year period and the day after the official holiday period. This shows that travellers, who are finally enjoying an extended holiday after three years, are choosing to stay longer and potentially spending more on their trips, says ForwardKeys.
China New Year peak outbound departure and return travel
International departures from China between 26 January and 29 February 2024, as of 18 January
Source: ForwardKeys Air Ticket Data.
Among Chinese travellers transferring flights on their way home, ForwardKeys’ data shows Istanbul and Abu Dhabi airports’ increasingly vital roles as connecting hubs, with Chinese transfers up +104% and +75% respectively on 2019 levels.
Domestically, Haikou (+7% over 2019) maintains its strong popularity, while destinations in the northeast, like Harbin and Changchun, exceed 2019 levels by +15%, driven by the appeal of ice and snow sports and effective social media marketing.
The optimistic outlook for Chinese travel recovery in 2024 is highlighted by the increase in seats, with Q1 international seat capacity reaching 71% of 2019 levels.
ForwardKeys China Expert Nan Dai says: “The robust recovery of Chinese travel during the Chinese New Year period reflects not only the resilience of the tourism industry but also the strategic measures taken by the government and the changing preferences of Chinese tourists.
“The early spike in departure activity and the positive performance of various destinations signal a promising trajectory for the travel sector in the coming year. This presents a golden opportunity for tourism-related businesses, such as retailers, who can potentially take advantage of this surge in consumer activity and capitalise on the increased spending propensity of Chinese travellers during their extended holidays.”
The Moodie Davitt China Travel Retail Report
In the latest issue of The Moodie Davitt China Travel Retail Report, published last week, we review the picture for Chinese outbound travel in 2024.
Advisory company Oxford Economics projects the number of international outbound trips taken by Chinese travellers in 2024 will roughly double relative to 2023, but even then the total will still lag -22% behind pre-pandemic levels.
Countries are doubling down on their efforts to attract Chinese visitors and it seems there will be winners and – big – losers. Internationally, several countries have rolled out visa-free agreements, including Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Thailand – home to King Power International, one of the world’s top duty free retailers – seems set to be a particular beneficiary, particularly with its visa-waiver programme taking effect on 1 March.
Click here for more commentary and for the full China Travel Retail Report.
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The Moodie Davitt eZine Issue 331 | 12 February 2024
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