Traffic Forecasts
Northeast Asia air traffic growth to outpace economic expansion over next 20 years, says Boeing
As aircraft manufacturer Boeing reveals its global traffic and fleet outlook for the next 20 years, it highlights the role that Northeast Asia will play as a growth driver.
Aircraft manufacturer Boeing says air travel growth in Northeast Asia will outpace regional economic growth over the next two decades. This projection is part of the Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), Boeing’s annual long-term forecast of demand for commercial aircraft and related services.
Boeing expects +5.9% annual passenger traffic growth in the region, outperforming the region’s annual economic growth rate of +1.2% over the next 20 years. The largest traffic flow from Northeast Asia in 2042 will be to Southeast Asia.
“As international traffic recovers, Northeast Asia will continue to serve growing markets throughout Asia Pacific, as well as trans-Pacific routes to North America,” said Boeing Commercial Marketing Managing Director for Asia Pacific Dave Schulte. “We anticipate continued strong twin-aisle demand to serve both short-haul and long-haul routes. Growing single-aisle deliveries will support an expected expansion of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in the region.”
The Northeast Asia market is expected take delivery of 1,350 new airplanes by 2042, with 70% of the current fleet replaced by new, more fuel-efficient aircraft, that will improve sustainability and the competitiveness of the region’s airlines.
As passenger totals for intra-Asia and international flights climb, low-cost carrier market share is expected to reach 25%, with capacity levels more than doubling.
Northeast Asia is expected to deliver powerful growth momentum to regional passenger traffic in the years ahead
Boeing’s 2023 CMO forecast highlights include:
- Exiting the pandemic, many airlines are assessing their future networks and simplifying their fleet to improve operations and reduce costs. Almost 40% of airlines have removed at least one airplane family from their active fleet since 2019.
- Global passenger air travel has become increasingly diverse and balanced over the last several decades, a trend that is expected to continue over the forecast period, with emerging aviation markets in Asia experiencing higher-growth phases of network, infrastructure and airline development.
- The growth of low-cost carriers (LCC) continues to drive down fares and make travel more accessible, with 36% of the global single-aisle fleet now operated by LCCs. This is forecast to rise to more than 40% and nearly half of all single aisle seats by 2042.
- Overall the global fleet will double in size to more than 48,500 jets during the forecast period.
The complete CMO is available at https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook/.
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