Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global tourism

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has underlined the role and importance of tourism on the global economy with a new policy briefing that assesses the scale of the challenges presented by the COVID-19 crisis.

Crucially, the huge drop in revenues from tourism could reduce global GDP by as much as -2.8%, says the UN. Its World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) agency has said that international tourist numbers could decline by -58% to -78% year-on-year in 2020, and visitor spending from US$1.5 trillion in 2019 to between US$310 and US$570 billion.

The Tourism and COVID-19 Policy Brief puts the global tourism market in a broader economic context.

The policy brief notes that Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developing Countries (LDCs), including many African nations, are most vulnerable due to their reliance on tourism for jobs and economic growth.

The report says: “No country has escaped the decimation of its tourism sector, from Italy where tourism accounts for 6% of the country’s GDP to Palau where it generates almost 90% of all exports. This crisis is a major shock for developed economies and an emergency for the most vulnerable people and developing countries.”

It adds: “In recent years, tourism has become a growing export sector for LDCs, representing 7% of exports in goods and services (10% for non-oil LDC exporters). International tourist arrivals in LDCs grew at +9.7% between 2000 and 2019, against +4.8% worldwide.

“Though the role of tourism on development varies across countries, the sector was instrumental in the graduation of Cape Verde, Maldives and Samoa from the LDC category. Similarly, tourism is a dynamic sector for Africa with tourism exports representing 10% of all exports in 2019, up from 5% in the mid-80s. In SIDS, tourism makes an even-larger economic contribution. The sector accounts for over 30% of total exports in the majority of SIDS, and up to 80% in some. COVID-19 is yet another reminder of how vulnerable SIDS are to global shocks.”

The UN report adds that women, youth and workers in the informal economy are most at risk from job losses and business closures across the tourism sector.

The Policy Brief also underlines how the crisis affects jobs, economies, wildlife conservation and the protection of cultural heritage. Importantly it says, the consequences for the UN’s Sustainable Developments Goals (SDGs) could potentially be devastating.

“The linkages of tourism to so many other areas of society means this crisis also puts at risk the contribution of the sector to other SDGs, such as gender equality or the reduction of inequalities among and inside countries,” says the UN.

Commenting, Antonio Guterres says: “It is imperative that we rebuild the tourism sector in a safe, equitable and climate friendly manner and so ensure tourism regains its position as a provider of decent jobs, stable incomes and the protection of our cultural and natural heritage.”

The Policy Brief outlines five priorities for the restart of tourism, aimed at ensuring a more resilient, inclusive and carbon neutral sector. These priorities are:

1. Mitigate socio-economic impacts on livelihoods, particularly women’s employment and economic security. 2. Boost competitiveness and build resilience, including through economic diversification and encouragement of MSMEs. 3. Advance innovation and digital transformation of tourism 4. Foster sustainability and green growth 5. Enhanced focus on coordination, and responsible leadership.